Task 3 Development of Integrated Urban Land Use and Transport Strategy

Task 3-3 Future Transport Network Scenarios

(1) Modal Split Scenarios

The future modal spilt should be prescribed by the modelling specialist if an aggregated model is used for modal split. The modal split ratio is usually estimated by trip length and purpose. When it is difficult to estimate future modal split based on available data, it is recommended that several case studies be conducted by using different modal split scenarios:

The following scenarios are generally useful for analyzing future transport demand:

  • Do Nothing Scenario: In this scenario it is assumed that private vehicle users will increase at the current growth rate and a certain proportion of current public transport users will shift to private vehicles in the future. For example, 10-20% of public transport users may be assumed to use private vehicles in 10 years due to economic growth.
  • Moderate Public Transport Improvement Scenario: Through implementation of public transport improvement measures, in this scenario it is assumed that no more public transport users will shift to private vehicles, i.e., the current modal split rate applies.
  • Significant Public Transport Improvement Scenario: Through implementation of public transport improvement measures, as well as private vehicle restriction measures such as Traffic/Transportation Demand Management (TDM), in this scenario some private vehicle users shift to public transport, for example 5-10%.

(2) Transport Network Scenarios

The road network in the target year should be prepared. The following cases are typically used:

  • Do Minimum Case: The future transport network includes the existing network and ongoing MRT and arterial development projects. No other transport systems (corridors) are assumed to be constructed.
  • Do Maximum Case: The future transport network consists of the existing network and future alternative network. If new MRT systems are to be proposed, locations of their corridors need to be specified in relation to the future growth scenarios in Task 3-2. Appropriate MRT systems will be examined in detail in Task 4-1.
Next page Page top