Annex 4 Modelling Approach in CMP Process

Introduction

The modelling technique provides a quantitative and scientific approach to improving the mobility of people. The approach enables an integrated planning of urban land use and transport systems. The detailed methodology for transport demand modelling is described in a number of references. Several major references are shown at the end of this Annex.

It is recommended, however, that the use of the modelling technique should be limited to project evaluation purposes, rather than plan generation. In the past, many studies made a common mistake in that modelling approaches were used to generate extensive infrastructure projects, such as highways or flyovers, without considering a comprehensive range of options, including the use of public transport systems, NMTs, or various traffic management and/or demand management measures.

It is also proposed that a simplified model should be developed for the purpose of CMP development. As widely recognized, modelling requires substantial cost, workforce and time. Though it is of course true that a detailed model is expected to provide more accurate results, considering the CMP objective to develop a long-term vision and goals for entire city development, the simplified model can provide adequate results with a shorter period and lower cost. Therefore, the following description shows the development methodology for a simplified model as part of CMP preparation.

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